The Bridge
The Bridge
Autumn 2005
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On-Line Feature
Personal Communications in 2025
Success through Consumer-Driven Offerings
We are experiencing a revolution in the telecommunications industry now. Although the revolution is facilitated by technology, the way we do things and the way we live have already started to change profoundly. The advances in technology are relatively easy to predict, but they are far less profound than the changes in our behavior. There will be extraordinary advances in technology, but, because it takes so long for technology to move from ideas and the research laboratories to practical implementation, we can pretty accurately tell what's going to happen for at least 20 years into the future. In fact, there won't be any technological surprises that will have an important effect on society between now and 2025. We have predictive tools that tell us what is going to happen in the fundamental technologies that determine the capabilities of our industry, tools with a long history of accuracy.

In contrast, there are no reliable tools to predict how people will accommodate the advances in technology. The users of technology, people, tend to be very conservative in the adoption of new technologies. People embrace new technologies only when they offer genuine functionality or they capture the attention of people in other ways. This paper will discuss the technological predictors briefly and delve deeper into the ways in which people will use the advances in technology.

I will be 98 years old in 2025 and, for one reason or another, I will be immune to either ridicule or adulation. I, therefore, have no qualms about making the following predictions.

Predicting the Technological Future
Figure 1
One example of technological predictors that will have vital impact on the telecommunications industry is shown in Figure 2. Moore's Law tells us that, by 2025, a single semiconductor chip will have the computing power of more than a trillion transistors, a thousand times more than today. These chips will cost about what a processor or memory chip costs today and will have comparable power drains. Further, the chips will contain both analog and digital devices so that far fewer "glue" chips will be necessary. Just think about it! You'll have access to computing power greater than the largest existing supercomputer in a device small enough to fit in your ear—or maybe implanted under your skin.

The law of Spectral Efficiency for Personal Communications is depicted in Figure 2. If you believe this chart (and the historical data supports it), the ability to provide bandwidth to people on the move in a limited amount of spectrum has doubled every 30 months for more than 110 years—and will continue doing so indefinitely.

Figure 2
But what do you do with all this power and bandwidth? Very simply, wireless bandwidth offers the opportunity for increased remote awareness to individuals—not only telecommunications, but tele-awareness. We can't live without our cell phones now because we can capture, wherever we are, the experience of hearing and talking to another person, or a machine, at a distance. This simple capability has changed all of our lives in the last 10 years. When you make a cellular call you expect a person to answer—a landline call is to a place. Imagine what will happen to us when we have the bandwidth to deliver—inexpensively—three-dimensional video, and senses of touch, taste, and smell. This may take a bit more than 20 years but will certainly happen.

The future of wireless technology will, therefore, comprise a variety of broadband telecommunication transport systems, each tailored to a set of user applications. The transport systems (air interfaces) will be very spectrally efficient and very low cost. The applications will, for a change, be very user-friendly despite their extraordinary complexity in both hardware and software.

Convergence versus Divergence
The technocrats love to talk about the convergence of technology and the convergence of services. It is clear that, from a technological point of view, telecommunications and computing are converging in many respects. The dominant carriers like to talk about the convergence of voice, data, and video services. These are techno-centric views that are an unfortunate result of the monopoly legacy of the telecommunications industry. In fact, our industry is moving into an extended period of divergence.

Some elements of convergence are beneficial. There are certainly economies of scale in transport, especially at the national level. The Internet is providing us with connections between everyone and every place, and the World Wide Web is providing us with access to huge amounts of information. Carriers are trying to persuade us that the bundling of voice, data, and video is a simplification for consumers in the false presumption that consumers are pretty dumb.

But the truly important changes in the future involve divergence. People have different needs, varying tastes, and different capabilities for absorbing technology. There is an enormous opportunity to cater to these varying needs and capabilities. The large carriers who represented our monopoly legacy had neither the inclination nor the organization to cater to individual market segments, even though these segments might involve many millions of people. And yet, the benefits of economies of scale dwindle toward irrelevance when submarkets of the magnitude of tens of millions or even hundreds of millions of subscribers are involved, and that's how big these presently unserved segments are.

We can expect to see, well before 2025, product and service offerings that are focused on age-related characteristics, the desire for different combinations of features, and economic limitations.

Here are some examples:

Cellular Telephone Service for Seniors
Coming soon, a service for people who have neither the ability nor the inclination to operate complex devices such as cellular phones! The service will allows a user to press a single button and access an operator who has a personalized database and can respond directly to requests. The cellular phone that implements this service is designed specifically for people who cannot read small writing or press tiny buttons. The speaker is louder than normal and the unit is large enough to handle easily. The cost of this service is low enough for seniors on a tiny budget, primarily because this service is used infrequently.
Cellular Telephone Service for Technophobes
A cellular telephone designed to optimally serve people who wish to dial, talk, and listen in the easiest possible way. Large buttons, large writing, and a large display make the unit both intuitive and less error-prone than more complex cellular phones. The contact file in the phone is updated remotely through the use of Internet access or a phone call. There are no cameras, MP3 players, Internet access, or any of the other features that most people neither want nor use. And there is no instruction manual—operation of the phone is truly intuitive.

Music on Demand
It is ironic that, in today's music market, we are asked to buy a piece of plastic in a cardboard box in order to listen to the music we want to hear. How much more simple it will be, in 2025, to carry a device that allows us to reach out, wirelessly and at low cost, for any music we desire at any time and to have it played for us then and there. This service will require a new form of low-cost, high-speed transport, but that too will happen as a result of new technology.

Photography Simplified
Everyone knows that the objective of photography is to capture a specific vision and to subsequently share this vision with others. It is amazing that the photographic industry has grown to its present size when one considers the complexity of achieving that objective with film, and later with digital photography. The film version of photography involved loading and unloading of cameras, processing, and the inherent delays involved in these irrelevant steps. Digital photography solved some problems but introduced a new level of complexity requiring computer skills. In 2025, the consumer will have a camera with two buttons. Press one button to take a picture (ultimately a three-dimensional picture with voice accompaniment), press the second button to deliver that picture to a means of sharing—such as a television set. My son takes a picture of my granddaughter, and I see it on my television set, if I wish to, a second later, no matter where I am in the world. A newspaper photographer has an image on her editor's desk a second after taking the picture at the event she is covering, along with the verbal representation of the story.

Game Playing
Imagine the social consequences of a teenager in Toledo playing a game with another teenager in Beijing with no barriers of language, culture, or politics. And think of the impact upon society after a generation of this capability.

Medicine
We now have the ability to measure virtually every body function both simply and accurately. In fact, there is a "life vest" available that will measure 39 such body functions. It is not difficult to imagine these measurements being consolidated into a digital signal that is transmitted to a doctor for diagnosis. This diagnosis would occur when the individual is in distress, not as is done today, when the individual can get an appointment at the doctor's office. The doctor then can take whatever steps are appropriate to resolve the distress, frequently without a visit. Of course, the doctor can prescribe medication also through the wireless telecommunications path.

Conclusion
But none of these revolutionary applications will be realized without a new business model that separates the transport of information from the applications that make this information useful. We will see, in 2025, multiple means of wireless information delivery, each tailored to and optimized for a different class of applications. And when you buy a service, you’ll very likely buy it from a service provider who works very hard to make the service fit your needs, in contrast with today’s service providers, who seek to put us all in the same box in the name of economies of scale.

And that, in the telecom industry, is a true revolution. The consumer is king, the consumer makes the choices, and the consumer wins.

About the Author
Martin Cooper
Executive Chairman and Co-Founder, ArrayComm, Inc.
Delta chapter — Illinois Institute of Technology

A pioneer in the wireless communications industry, Cooper conceived the first portable cellular phone in 1973 and led the 10-year process of bringing it to market. During 29 years with Motorola, Cooper built and managed both its paging and cellular businesses and served as Corporate Director of Research and Development. In 1992, he founded ArrayComm, Inc., which has grown from a seed-funded start-up in San Jose, Calif., into the world leader in smart antenna technology with 300 patents issued and pending worldwide.

The Bridge
November 7–9, 2008
Carnegie Mellon University

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