We are experiencing a revolution in the telecommunications industry now. Although the revolution is
facilitated by technology, the way we do things and the way we live have already started to change
profoundly. The advances in technology are relatively easy to predict, but they are far less profound
than the changes in our behavior. There will be extraordinary advances in technology, but, because it
takes so long for technology to move from ideas and the research laboratories to practical implementation,
we can pretty accurately tell what's going to happen for at least 20 years into the future. In fact,
there won't be any technological surprises that will have an important effect on society between now and 2025.
We have predictive tools that tell us what is going to happen in the fundamental technologies that determine
the capabilities of our industry, tools with a long history of accuracy.
In contrast, there are no reliable tools to predict how people will accommodate the advances in technology.
The users of technology, people, tend to be very conservative in the adoption of new technologies. People
embrace new technologies only when they offer genuine functionality or they capture the attention of people
in other ways. This paper will discuss the technological predictors briefly and delve deeper into the ways
in which people will use the advances in technology.
I will be 98 years old in 2025 and, for one reason or another, I will be immune to either ridicule or adulation.
I, therefore, have no qualms about making the following predictions.
Figure 1
One example of technological predictors that will have vital impact on the telecommunications industry is shown
in
Figure 2. Moore's Law tells us that, by 2025, a single semiconductor chip will have the computing power of
more than a trillion transistors, a thousand times more than today. These chips will cost about what a processor
or memory chip costs today and will have comparable power drains. Further, the chips will contain both analog
and digital devices so that far fewer "glue" chips will be necessary. Just think about it! You'll have access
to computing power greater than the largest existing supercomputer in a device small enough to fit in your ear—or
maybe implanted under your skin.
The law of Spectral Efficiency for Personal Communications is depicted in Figure 2. If you believe this chart (and
the historical data supports it), the ability to provide bandwidth to people on the move in a limited amount of
spectrum has doubled every 30 months for more than 110 years—and will continue doing so indefinitely.
Figure 2
But what do you do with all this power and bandwidth? Very simply, wireless bandwidth offers the opportunity for
increased remote awareness to individuals—not only telecommunications, but tele-awareness. We can't live without
our cell phones now because we can capture, wherever we are, the experience of hearing and talking to another
person, or a machine, at a distance. This simple capability has changed all of our lives in the last 10 years.
When you make a cellular call you expect a person to answer—a landline call is to a place. Imagine what will
happen to us when we have the bandwidth to deliver—inexpensively—three-dimensional video, and senses of touch,
taste, and smell. This may take a bit more than 20 years but will certainly happen.
The future of wireless technology will, therefore, comprise a variety of broadband telecommunication transport
systems, each tailored to a set of user applications. The transport systems (air interfaces) will be very
spectrally efficient and very low cost. The applications will, for a change, be very user-friendly despite
their extraordinary complexity in both hardware and software.
The technocrats love to talk about the convergence of technology and the convergence of services. It is clear
that, from a technological point of view, telecommunications and computing are converging in many respects.
The dominant carriers like to talk about the convergence of voice, data, and video services. These are techno-centric
views that are an unfortunate result of the monopoly legacy of the telecommunications industry. In fact, our
industry is moving into an extended period of divergence.
Some elements of convergence are beneficial. There are certainly economies of scale in transport, especially at
the national level. The Internet is providing us with connections between everyone and every place, and the
World Wide Web is providing us with access to huge amounts of information. Carriers are trying to persuade us
that the bundling of voice, data, and video is a simplification for consumers in the false presumption that
consumers are pretty dumb.
But the truly important changes in the future involve divergence. People have different needs, varying tastes,
and different capabilities for absorbing technology. There is an enormous opportunity to cater to these varying
needs and capabilities. The large carriers who represented our monopoly legacy had neither the inclination nor
the organization to cater to individual market segments, even though these segments might involve many millions
of people. And yet, the benefits of economies of scale dwindle toward irrelevance when submarkets of the magnitude
of tens of millions or even hundreds of millions of subscribers are involved, and that's how big these presently
unserved segments are.
We can expect to see, well before 2025, product and service offerings that are focused on age-related
characteristics, the desire for different combinations of features, and economic limitations.
Here are some examples:
Coming soon, a service for people who have neither the ability nor the inclination to operate complex devices
such as cellular phones! The service will allows a user to press a single button and access an operator who
has a personalized database and can respond directly to requests. The cellular phone that implements this
service is designed specifically for people who cannot read small writing or press tiny buttons. The speaker
is louder than normal and the unit is large enough to handle easily. The cost of this service is low enough
for seniors on a tiny budget, primarily because this service is used infrequently.
A cellular telephone designed to optimally serve people who wish to dial, talk, and listen in the easiest
possible way. Large buttons, large writing, and a large display make the unit both intuitive and less error-prone
than more complex cellular phones. The contact file in the phone is updated remotely through the use of Internet
access or a phone call. There are no cameras, MP3 players, Internet access, or any of the other features that
most people neither want nor use. And there is no instruction manual—operation of the phone is truly intuitive.
It is ironic that, in today's music market, we are asked to buy a piece of plastic in a cardboard box in
order to listen to the music we want to hear. How much more simple it will be, in 2025, to carry a device
that allows us to reach out, wirelessly and at low cost, for any music we desire at any time and to have
it played for us then and there. This service will require a new form of low-cost, high-speed transport,
but that too will happen as a result of new technology.
Everyone knows that the objective of photography is to capture a specific vision and to subsequently
share this vision with others. It is amazing that the photographic industry has grown to its present
size when one considers the complexity of achieving that objective with film, and later with digital
photography. The film version of photography involved loading and unloading of cameras, processing, and
the inherent delays involved in these irrelevant steps. Digital photography solved some problems but
introduced a new level of complexity requiring computer skills. In 2025, the consumer will have a camera
with two buttons. Press one button to take a picture (ultimately a three-dimensional picture with voice
accompaniment), press the second button to deliver that picture to a means of sharing—such as a television
set. My son takes a picture of my granddaughter, and I see it on my television set, if I wish to, a second
later, no matter where I am in the world. A newspaper photographer has an image on her editor's desk a second
after taking the picture at the event she is covering, along with the verbal representation of the story.
Imagine the social consequences of a teenager in Toledo playing a game with another teenager in Beijing
with no barriers of language, culture, or politics. And think of the impact upon society after a generation
of this capability.
We now have the ability to measure virtually every body function both simply and accurately. In fact, there
is a "life vest" available that will measure 39 such body functions. It is not difficult to imagine these
measurements being consolidated into a digital signal that is transmitted to a doctor for diagnosis. This
diagnosis would occur when the individual is in distress, not as is done today, when the individual can get
an appointment at the doctor's office. The doctor then can take whatever steps are appropriate to resolve
the distress, frequently without a visit. Of course, the doctor can prescribe medication also through the
wireless telecommunications path.
But none of these revolutionary applications will be realized without a new business model that separates the
transport of information from the applications that make this information useful. We will see, in 2025, multiple
means of wireless information delivery, each tailored to and optimized for a different class of applications. And
when you buy a service, you’ll very likely buy it from a service provider who works very hard to make the service
fit your needs, in contrast with today’s service providers, who seek to put us all in the same box in the name of
economies of scale.
And that, in the telecom industry, is a true revolution. The consumer is king, the consumer makes the choices, and the consumer wins.
Martin Cooper
Executive Chairman and Co-Founder, ArrayComm, Inc.
Delta chapter — Illinois Institute of Technology
A pioneer in the wireless communications industry, Cooper conceived the first portable cellular phone in 1973 and
led the 10-year process of bringing it to market. During 29 years with Motorola, Cooper built and managed both its
paging and cellular businesses and served as Corporate Director of Research and Development. In 1992, he founded
ArrayComm, Inc., which has grown from a seed-funded start-up in San Jose, Calif., into the world leader in smart
antenna technology with 300 patents issued and pending worldwide.